Space Agency

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The offences relate to special betting markets that let customers wager on the exact date of the general election.

The then-prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced 4 July 2024 as the election date on 22 May 2024. However, internal planning for that date had already begun at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters before the announcement.

Anthony Lee’s senior campaigning role gave him access to confidential discussions about the election timing. Rather than keeping that information confidential, he placed bets and passed it to his wife. She then used the information to place her own bets.

What is Space Agency?

According to the governance policies of Meta, the owner of Instagram, gambling platforms can use programmatic advertising services and branded content, provided they receive authorisation from the platform. They cannot target content to individuals under 18 or territories where gambling is not regulated.

To obtain Meta’s approval, the company needs to fill out a form and attach documents proving its operating licence. This same form includes a contract, in the form of an “I accept the terms and conditions” button. In it, the advertiser releases Meta from liability for any violations of the content, including legal or administrative proceedings.

The acceptance and authorisation process is restricted to paid media. Regarding organic content that sells, markets, depicts or promotes online gambling, Meta states, in the restricted products and services section, that it encourages safety, prevents potentially harmful activities and displays content only to those over 18 years of age.

What is Space Agency?

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.